Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 14 2020 | 5626 | 33990 | 189 | 40 | 1310 | 1781 |
| November 15 2020 | 5865 | 34361 | 192 | 40 | 1309 | 1905 |
| November 16 2020 | 6149 | 34583 | 193 | 42 | 1433 | 2054 |
| November 17 2020 | 6251 | 35217 | 197 | 45 | 1354 | 2026 |
| November 18 2020 | 6602 | 35585 | 201 | 46 | 1566 | 2286 |
| November 19 2020 | 6778 | 35890 | 203 | 48 | 1647 | 2222 |
| November 20 2020 | 6930 | 36181 | 207 | 50 | 1707 | 2214 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 8.4 | 4.3% | 74 | 0.64% | 90 | 0.78% |
| 10-19 | 20 | 25.6 | 13.6% | 233 | 1.71% | 319 | 2.34% |
| 20-29 | 30 | 47.7 | 24.4% | 416 | 1.99% | 539 | 2.58% |
| 30-39 | 28 | 34.1 | 16.3% | 279 | 2.05% | 362 | 2.66% |
| 40-49 | 18 | 25.4 | 12.5% | 214 | 2.04% | 278 | 2.66% |
| 50-59 | 22 | 24.3 | 12% | 204 | 1.62% | 258 | 2.05% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 19.3 | 9.7% | 166 | 1.44% | 204 | 1.77% |
| 70+ | 13 | 13.4 | 7.1% | 121 | 1.16% | 164 | 1.57% |
| All ages | 152 | 198.3 | 100% | 1707 | 1.63% | 2214 | 2.12% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 14 2020 | 3438 | 21032 | 99 | 36 | 1178 | 1499 |
| November 15 2020 | 3511 | 21197 | 102 | 38 | 1077 | 1553 |
| November 16 2020 | 3580 | 21319 | 104 | 41 | 976 | 1547 |
| November 17 2020 | 3693 | 21645 | 107 | 41 | 980 | 1565 |
| November 18 2020 | 3797 | 21827 | 107 | 42 | 1044 | 1537 |
| November 19 2020 | 3894 | 21946 | 109 | 43 | 1094 | 1460 |
| November 20 2020 | 3969 | 22178 | 114 | 44 | 985 | 1365 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.1 | 2.5% | 25 | 0.32% | 39 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 7.9 | 8.6% | 85 | 1.01% | 113 | 1.34% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 13.9 | 15.3% | 151 | 2.12% | 214 | 3.01% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 13.3 | 16.4% | 162 | 1.93% | 242 | 2.88% |
| 40-49 | 17 | 14.3 | 17.5% | 172 | 2.22% | 239 | 3.08% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 14.6 | 16.5% | 163 | 1.68% | 220 | 2.27% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 13.0 | 13.6% | 134 | 1.59% | 189 | 2.25% |
| 70+ | 6 | 8.3 | 9.4% | 93 | 1.31% | 109 | 1.53% |
| All ages | 75 | 87.3 | 100% | 985 | 1.52% | 1365 | 2.11% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 14 2020 | 2397 | 13804 | 92 | 30 | 903 | 1116 |
| November 15 2020 | 2641 | 13993 | 97 | 30 | 1055 | 1321 |
| November 16 2020 | 2721 | 14032 | 98 | 30 | 1036 | 1333 |
| November 17 2020 | 2754 | 14235 | 104 | 34 | 957 | 1330 |
| November 18 2020 | 2882 | 14400 | 109 | 35 | 1021 | 1388 |
| November 19 2020 | 3023 | 14489 | 113 | 35 | 1104 | 1437 |
| November 20 2020 | 3138 | 14614 | 114 | 35 | 1147 | 1453 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 5.1 | 3.9% | 45 | 0.83% | 56 | 1.03% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 10.3 | 8.3% | 95 | 1.75% | 130 | 2.39% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 21.0 | 14.6% | 167 | 3.69% | 217 | 4.8% |
| 30-39 | 19 | 24.1 | 16.4% | 188 | 3.46% | 226 | 4.16% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 21.1 | 14.5% | 166 | 3.34% | 213 | 4.28% |
| 50-59 | 17 | 23.6 | 16.7% | 192 | 2.83% | 238 | 3.51% |
| 60-69 | 24 | 18.7 | 15.1% | 173 | 2.73% | 206 | 3.25% |
| 70+ | 11 | 12.3 | 10.5% | 121 | 1.91% | 167 | 2.64% |
| All ages | 115 | 136.3 | 100% | 1147 | 2.54% | 1453 | 3.21% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 14 2020 | 6226 | 36977 | 113 | 30 | 1316 | 1676 |
| November 15 2020 | 6285 | 37236 | 114 | 30 | 1250 | 1677 |
| November 16 2020 | 6449 | 37430 | 115 | 30 | 1275 | 1814 |
| November 17 2020 | 6641 | 37750 | 121 | 31 | 1250 | 1901 |
| November 18 2020 | 6845 | 38261 | 128 | 31 | 1376 | 1935 |
| November 19 2020 | 6919 | 38594 | 132 | 32 | 1384 | 1884 |
| November 20 2020 | 7081 | 38863 | 137 | 32 | 1455 | 1907 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 3.7 | 2.9% | 42 | 0.36% | 55 | 0.47% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 11.1 | 9.8% | 142 | 0.86% | 197 | 1.19% |
| 20-29 | 26 | 25.4 | 20.2% | 294 | 1.38% | 388 | 1.82% |
| 30-39 | 36 | 25.3 | 17.7% | 258 | 1.9% | 326 | 2.4% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 14.4 | 12.3% | 179 | 1.32% | 234 | 1.72% |
| 50-59 | 22 | 20.3 | 16.6% | 241 | 1.7% | 307 | 2.16% |
| 60-69 | 21 | 14.6 | 10.9% | 159 | 1.12% | 224 | 1.58% |
| 70+ | 25 | 13.3 | 9.6% | 140 | 1.08% | 176 | 1.35% |
| All ages | 162 | 128.1 | 100% | 1455 | 1.23% | 1907 | 1.61% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 14 2020 | 21348 | 257673 | 664 | 61 | 4385 | 5509 |
| November 15 2020 | 21720 | 259011 | 667 | 61 | 4425 | 5709 |
| November 16 2020 | 22223 | 259512 | 673 | 61 | 4416 | 6016 |
| November 17 2020 | 22930 | 261256 | 695 | 64 | 4656 | 6162 |
| November 18 2020 | 23474 | 262791 | 706 | 68 | 4951 | 6511 |
| November 19 2020 | 23869 | 263742 | 714 | 69 | 5072 | 6574 |
| November 20 2020 | 24317 | 265581 | 715 | 72 | 4823 | 6510 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 27 | 22.0 | 4.5% | 218 | 0.36% | 319 | 0.53% |
| 10-19 | 74 | 88.7 | 18% | 867 | 1.22% | 1136 | 1.6% |
| 20-29 | 113 | 110.6 | 23.8% | 1149 | 1.11% | 1583 | 1.52% |
| 30-39 | 70 | 73.7 | 15.4% | 741 | 0.97% | 1025 | 1.34% |
| 40-49 | 60 | 60.7 | 13.4% | 648 | 0.99% | 860 | 1.31% |
| 50-59 | 55 | 52.0 | 11.4% | 549 | 0.84% | 724 | 1.1% |
| 60-69 | 38 | 34.4 | 7.3% | 350 | 0.64% | 452 | 0.83% |
| 70+ | 11 | 23.9 | 6.2% | 301 | 0.61% | 411 | 0.84% |
| All ages | 448 | 466.0 | 100% | 4823 | 0.88% | 6510 | 1.19% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 14 2020 | 306311 | 1989320 | 14226 | 2625 | 62309 | 80941 |
| November 15 2020 | 312369 | 2001239 | 14381 | 2637 | 62445 | 83506 |
| November 16 2020 | 316758 | 2009148 | 14499 | 2649 | 60693 | 84462 |
| November 17 2020 | 323848 | 2024801 | 14817 | 2741 | 60718 | 85781 |
| November 18 2020 | 331837 | 2036941 | 15100 | 2793 | 64427 | 87835 |
| November 19 2020 | 338472 | 2049526 | 15336 | 2876 | 66702 | 88548 |
| November 20 2020 | 344945 | 2062191 | 15526 | 2954 | 66102 | 88880 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 285 | 255.3 | 4% | 2650 | 0.41% | 3566 | 0.56% |
| 10-19 | 735 | 704.9 | 11.3% | 7464 | 0.99% | 10191 | 1.35% |
| 20-29 | 1058 | 1049.1 | 17% | 11215 | 1.48% | 15491 | 2.05% |
| 30-39 | 996 | 995.3 | 15.7% | 10362 | 1.37% | 13884 | 1.83% |
| 40-49 | 911 | 924.4 | 14.8% | 9774 | 1.4% | 12880 | 1.84% |
| 50-59 | 1018 | 1003.1 | 15.8% | 10471 | 1.28% | 13885 | 1.7% |
| 60-69 | 783 | 705.6 | 11.4% | 7543 | 1% | 10127 | 1.34% |
| 70+ | 687 | 616.6 | 10% | 6623 | 1.03% | 8856 | 1.38% |
| All ages | 6473 | 6254.3 | 100% | 66102 | 1.14% | 88880 | 1.53% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 211.6 | 234.5 | 257.5 | 198.3 | 148 | 35.6% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 211.1 | 87.3 | 109.6 | 31.6% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 321.1 | 136.3 | 75.9 | 48.2% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 161.3 | 119 | 182.3 | 128.1 | 128.6 | 28.4% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 119.1 | 159.8 | 152.4 | 466 | 370 | 24.7% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 152.7 | 134.6 | 204.7 | 6254.3 | 5639.1 | 33.6% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 6.7 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.47 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-11 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2807"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges